A dry winter, El Niño and the warmest winter temperatures on record are contributing to ongoing dry conditions across the Midwest. As planting season approaches for farmers across the Midwest, large parts of many states are still in a drought.

The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows the upper Mississippi River from Minnesota to Missouri is surrounded by moderate to severe drought conditions, with a portion of northeast Iowa in extreme drought. Some parts of the Midwest have been dealing with drought since mid-2020.

Although winter rainfall improved conditions in some parts of the region, the outlook is still challenging for Midwest farmers. While warm temperatures made it easier for the ground to absorb water, it also made it easier for water to evaporate from the soil after snow or rain. Now, dryness concerns are starting to pop up throughout the corn belt, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub.

“We're kind of getting hit from both sides this way,” Todey said. “It’s just not getting enough water back in the soil and we're already losing it back to the atmosphere. And this just continues to worsen as the spring goes along.”

Officials with the Army Corps of Engineers and supporting agencies laid out the long-term issues within the Missouri River Basin on a call Thursday. Large parts of the basin have been experiencing lower than normal precipitation along with higher than normal temperatures.

“It's going to take some time and quite a bit of above normal precipitation to ever fill those lower, if you will, lower buckets or lower levels of soil and groundwater in the basin,” said Doug Kluck, Central Region Climate Services director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

On top of the drought, the U.S. just recorded its warmest winter on record. That was also the case in the Midwest and Great Plains, where Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin each recorded their warmest winters. Northern parts of the Midwest have been running 12 to 16 degrees above normal in the last month, said Todey.

“The numbers we're dealing with this winter are astounding in the way of temperatures,” he said.

Some of that warmth is because of the El Niño weather pattern, but that is just part of the story. Todey said while it is difficult to connect climate change to an individual event like this drought, there are signs of a changing climate in what the Midwest is experiencing now.

“An El Niño winter in the Upper Midwest has a better chance of being warmer than average, and it has been,” Todey said. “But we're also seeing a long-term trend that is due to climate change in the way of warming winters. So those two fingerprints were all over this winter.”

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Photo Credit: science-photo-library-igor-stevanovic